Here is a digest of the best links each week for anyone who might be interested.
The Pandemic: the reality we live in
The Atlantic took a hard reflection on How the Pandemic Defeated America. I have been wondering if we could do better if another pandemic hits again (which is inevitable). Will we not repeat those mistakes that brought us to this stage?
- Will the human society stop squeezing the world’s wildlife and avoid the burst of more virus?
- Will nations collaborate more in the future and be transparent on new threat? Will the leading organizations (like WHO) get the support they need?
- Will the experts be heard and respected when the alarms are pulled off?
- Will the country react more earlier to stop the pandemic from happening?
- How about the investment on the virus research, vaccine development, testing infrastructure, etc.? Will it increase or disappear soon after the pandemic ends?
- Will public health gets more political support and funding instead of budget cut?
- Will the hospitals have backup plans behind their just-in-time economy in case the global supply chains are broken?
- Will the society be educated to respect science more, be disciplined to keep social distance, and be open to wear masks when asked?
- Will we remove or even reduce the inequality across communities and people of different races before the next pandemic hits again?
- Will we have more trustable media and social platforms for getting fast reliable news next time?
Given the success of a few countries in this pandemic, we don’t need to do everything perfect to manage the virus. It may just need us to do a few things right to stop a break out.
However, just comparing mask slackers in 1918 with those in 2020, it’s hard to imagine people will make big changes on individual choice for the universal compliance.
Disruptions: how it might be different
Benedict Evan’s essay on predicting tech:
The thread through all of this is that we don’t know what will happen, but we do know what could happen – we don’t know the answer, but we can at least ask useful questions. The key challenge to any assertion about what will happen, I think, is to ask ‘well, what would have to change?’ Could this happen, and if it did, would it work? We’re always going to be wrong sometimes, but we can try to be wrong for the right reasons.
In summary, you need a theory or hypothesis to test against the near future. And, here is his latest deck of theories on tech after distancing. Highly recommended!
Insights: raise the bar for ourselves
Stack Luck, coined by Venkatesh Rao, is imho the luck behind all the “crazy” bets to win.
The genius of Yossarian, the stack-lucky protagonist of Catch-22, is that he manages to be functionally crazy in exactly the right way needed to survive. Instead of living by justified, true beliefs, in a world he believes to be reasonable, he lives by adaptive, effective beliefs, in a world he believes to be crazy.
Crazy and alive, is what describing the stack lucky ones. Crazy, in another word, is to take unusual path that is not so reasonable. As the author points out, “Sufficient complexity, experienced from the inside, is indistinguishable from crazy.”
If we take the fact that the world is changing fast (or crazy), there is no called reasonable move. “To be reasonable is to regress at best, and court death at worst.”
Having a blog post go viral is a case of stack luck. Bagging a seat on a starship is a case of stack luck. Having a fragment of your obscure work of art turn into a big, profitable meme is a case of stack luck. Betting correctly on a stock market crash is case of stack luck. Getting in early on a social platform and reaping the reputational dividend of being an early adopter is stack luck. Moving a line on a map and causing a corresponding change in the fate of the territory is stack luck. Getting to be President or Prime Minister of major countries is a case of stack luck.
The author believes that stack luck can be achieved intentionally in the past. But, that time is gently but firmly coming to an end.
Leadership: the ideas for better collaboration
One of the fun posts on management to read this week is Marianne Bellotti’s “Why is This Idiot Running My Engineering Org?” The author shared an interesting story at USDS to make the point about how risk tolerance drives one’s behavior at all levels.
When people begin to take on leadership roles eventually they have to decide how they are going to handle fear. The leaders who have a low tolerance for risk … ultimately become bureaucrats. Eventually those leaders end up spending all their time trying to look busy, avoid responsibility and save face by scapegoating others.
The author didn’t elaborate the behavior of leaders who would “embrace death”. It’s hard to assume leaders who ignore risks and embrace death always bring the best for the team. As a leader, you need to anticipate all sorts of risks and deliberately bet on your options. The trait that separates good leaders from bad ones in my view is the ability to identify opportunities besides risks and take actions against it.
Economy: the science hidden among fallacies
When the pandemic started, almost every expert, including the crypto community, predicted that remittance from migrants in developed countries to their home countries would crash. However, it turns out remittance to Mexico rises significantly during pandemic.
The observation is uneven. We see rises in El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, Bangladesh and Pakistan. But, in Philippines, Tajikistan and Brazil, remittances dropped by double digits.
It shows that economists know little about remittance, or the poor economy, or the poor in general. The data showed that migrants suffered way more than all groups during the pandemic. But, they put their family first and send even more back home during this time. Migration is an insurance to the poor.
“There’s more of a need to send now. I have relatives who can’t work. I have relatives who are sick and need a doctor,” she said.
“Last week my brother passed away, and now they need money for the funeral. These days I don’t keep any of my paycheck for myself.”