Here is a digest of the best links each week for anyone who might be interested.
The Pandemic: the reality we live in
Immunology, which we really need to understand to better cope with coronavirus, is very complicated. The Atlantic published a well crafted essay on its complexity: Immunology Is Where Intuition Goes to Die. There are many things that may help to an unknown degree at this moment, including the innate immune system, T-cells, B-cells, antibodies and their efficacy, lasting power for different groups of people. The truth is that there are still lots of unknowns. But, we do know what matters most at this stage is policies. Listen to Bill Gate’s interview with wired on why the current reimbursement policies on testing makes “the majority of all US tests completely garbage, wasted.”
On the hopeful side, designer antibodies (monoclonal) could battle COVID-19 before vaccines arrive. “Likely to be more effective than the repurposed drugs now available, such as remdesivir and dexamethasone, antibodies could protect the highest risk health care workers from becoming infected while also lessening the severity of COVID-19 disease in hospitalized patients.”
Or, we can land on a more pessimistic 2021 and beyond:
June 2021. The world has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn; intermittent lockdowns are the new normal. An approved vaccine offers six months of protection, but international deal-making has slowed its distribution. An estimated 250 million people have been infected worldwide, and 1.75 million are dead.
Disruptions: how it might be different
Jared Diamond talked about his book Upheaval a year ago: There’s a 49 Percent Chance the World As We Know It Will End by 2050. This prediction sounds more real today. One of most commonly asked question is how to prioritize our efforts. As Jared laughed off with “We should not be prioritizing our efforts.”
“If you’re asking me what is the most important factor for a happy marriage, I’d predict that you’re going to get divorced within a few years.” Because in order to have a happy marriage you’ve got to get 37 things right. And if you get 36 right but you don’t get sex right, or you don’t get money right, or you don’t get your in-laws right, you will get divorced. You got to get lots of things right.
Insights: raise the bar for ourselves
Expiring vs. Permanent Skills points out the two kinds of skills every field has. The expiring ones are “critical in one era, diminished in the next, unmentionable thereafter.” The permanent ones are “as essential 100 years ago as they are today.” Both are important.
We all live in the moment. Hence, people pay more attention to the current issues, and the expiring skills needed to solve those issues. However, it’s important for us to recognize the permanent ones and harsh them. Because they compound for a long time.
The post gives some great examples on permanent skills to have. To me, the skills that rarely change over time are the ones that are about how to management oneself, how to deal with others, and how to adapt to changes. They are the principles.
Leadership: the ideas for better collaboration
CBInsights summarizes the 24 Lessons From Warren Buffett’s Annual Letters To Shareholders:
- Executive should only eat what they kill;
- Don’t give executives stock options as compensation;
- Buy stock as an owner not a speculator;
- Don’t ignore the value of intangible assets;
- Ignore short-term movements in stock prices;
- Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful;
- Save your money in peacetime so you can buy more during war;
- Don’t invest in business that are too complex to fully understand;
- Invest in unsexy companies that build products people need;
- Stock buybacks are often the best use of corporate cash;
- Never investment because you think a company is a bargain;
- Don’t invest only because you expect a company to grow;
- Never use your own stock to make acquisitions;
- America is not in decline – it’s becoming more and more efficient (2009);
- Embrace the virtue of sloth;
- Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre;
- Complex financial instruments are dangerous liabilities;
- Investment bank incentives are usually not your incentives;
- Leaders should live the way they want their employees to live;
- Hire people who have no need to work;
- Compensation committees have sent CEO pay out of control;
- Never use borrowed money to buy stocks;
- Borrow money when it’s cheap;
- Raising debt is like playing Russian roulette;
These are great investment advice, but also awesome management insights. To learn more, read the report.
Economy: the science hidden among fallacies
In general, I am optimistic about the future. However, regarding to the economy at the moment, I hold similar views as Times on The Next Global Depression Is Coming and Optimism Won’t Slow It Down. For very much the similar three reasons the author mentions: first, the impact of coronavirus is global, though people are still mainly debating about the US; second, it cuts deeper into livelihoods by completely reshaping the way people live, how we interact with each other, the job market, and more; third, its bad effects will linger longer than many people expect.